This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Scott Morgenstern is a professor of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh.
The U.S. has an important choice to make regarding agriculture.
It can import more people to pick crops and do other kinds of agricultural labor, it can raise wages enough to lure more U.S. citizens and immigrants with legal status to take these jobs, or it can . All three options contradict key Trump administration priorities: reducing immigration, keeping prices low and .
The big tax-and-spending bill President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4, 2025, included of those living in the U.S. without authorization. And about , accounting for .
As the , one emerging solution is to replace at least some deported farmworkers with that allow them to help with the harvest but require them to go home after their visas expire.
Such 鈥済uest worker鈥� programs have existed for decades, leading to today鈥檚 H-2A visa program. As of 2023, , , were employed through this program. About , and nearly all are men. The states where the largest numbers of them go are .
As a , I teach my students to consider the difficult trade-offs that governments face. If the Trump administration removes a significant share of the immigrants living in the U.S. without legal permission from the agricultural labor force to try to meet its deportation goals, farm owners will have few options.
Few options available
First, farm owners could raise wages and improve working conditions enough to attract U.S. citizens and immigrants who are legal permanent residents or otherwise in the U.S. with legal status.
But many agricultural employers say they who can legally work 鈥� at least without higher wages and much-improved job requirements. Without any undocumented immigrant farmworkers, would spike, creating an incentive for more food to be imported.
Second, farm owners could employ fewer people. That would require either growing different crops that require to plant and harvest. But that would mean the U.S. could have to import more food. And automation for some crops is very expensive. For others, , it鈥檚 currently impossible.
It鈥檚 also possible that some farm owners could put their land to other uses, ceasing production, but that would also necessitate more imported food.
Trump administration鈥檚 suggested fixes
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has predicted that farm owners will soon find plenty of U.S. citizens to employ.
She declared on July 8 that the new included in the same legislative package as the immigration enforcement funds would encourage huge numbers of instead of losing their health insurance through that government program.
.
For one thing, most already do. due to disabilities or caregiving obligations.
Few people enrolled in Medicaid live close enough to a farm to work at one, and even those who do aren鈥檛 capable of doing farmwork. When farm owners to work in the fields in the 1990s, it failed. Another experiment in the 1960s, which , didn鈥檛 pan out either because the teens found the work too hard.
It seems more likely that farm owners will try to hire many more foreign farmworkers to do temporary but legal jobs through the H-2A program.
Although he has not made it an official policy, .
In June, for example, Trump said his administration was working on 鈥溾�� for immigrants lacking authorization to be in the U.S. who are working on farms and in hotels.
Established in 1952, numbers now rising quickly
The guest worker system, established in 1952 and revised significantly in 1986, has become a mainstay of U.S. agriculture because it offers important benefits to both the they hire.
There is no cap on the number of potential workers. The number of H-2A visas issued is based only on how many employers request them. Farm owners may apply for visas after verifying that they are unable to locate enough workers who are U.S. citizens or present in the U.S. with authorization.
To protect U.S. workers, the government mandates that H-2A workers earn an 鈥�.鈥� The Labor Department sets that hourly wage, which ranges from $10.36 in Puerto Rico to about $15 in several southern states, to . These wages are set at relatively high levels to avoid putting downward pressure on what other U.S. workers are paid for the same jobs.
After certification, farm owners recruit workers in a foreign country who are offered a contract that includes transportation from their home country and a trip back 鈥� assuming they complete the contract.
The program provides farm owners with a short-term labor force. It guarantees the foreign workers who obtain H-2A visas , as well as . That combination has proven increasingly popular in recent years: The annual number of H-2A visas rose to 310,700 in 2023, .
Possible downsides
Boosting the number of agricultural guest workers would and reduce the risk of crops going unharvested. But it seems clear to me that a sudden change would pose risks for workers and farm owners alike.
Workers would be at risk because oversight of the H-2A program . Despite that lax track record, some have been fined or because of unpaid wages and other abuses.
Relying even more on guest farmworkers than the U.S. does today would also swap workers who have built lives and families north of the border with people who are in the U.S. on a temporary basis. Immigration opponents are unlikely to object to this trade-off, but to immigrant rights groups, this arrangement would be cruel and unfair behind them.
What鈥檚 more, the of . In 2022, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of Georgia described conditions for H-2A workers at an onion farm the government had investigated as 鈥�.鈥�
The U.S. Government Accountability Office has researched the H-2A visa program and observed many problems it recommends be fixed.For farm owners, the downside of ramping up guest worker programs is that it could increase costs and make production less efficient and more costly. That鈥檚 because transporting Mexican farmworkers back and forth each year is complicated and expensive. Farm groups say that . It can be particularly difficult for small farms to participate in this program.
Some farm owners have . that the Trump administration .
To be sure, these problems aren鈥檛 limited to agriculture. businesses, which rely heavily on undocumented workers, can also temporarily employ some foreigners through the H-2B visa program 鈥� which is smaller than the H-2A program, and is available only for jobs considered seasonal.
and many other kinds of employers who rely on people who can鈥檛 legally work for them could also struggle. But so far, available to help them fill those gaps.
If the U.S. does deport millions of workers, the price of tomatoes, elder care, restaurant meals and roof repairs would probably rise substantially. A vast increase in the number of guest workers is a potential but partial solution, but it would multiply problems that are inherent in these temporary visa programs.
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