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Florida is experiencing one of its worst droughts in decades, causing and evacuation orders in large swaths of the state.
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis recently offered a possible silver lining.
"They do say, that when you have droughts, that the hurricane seasons tend to be less active," at an April 22 event in Jacksonville. "I don't know if that's true. I don't know if that's an old wives鈥� tale. I don鈥檛 know if there鈥檚 data to back it up, but people do say that, and so I guess we shall see what that means for this season coming up."
Over half of Florida is in an "extreme drought," as classified by, and about 22% of the state is in an "exceptional drought," the system鈥檚 highest level.
Meteorologists and climate experts told PolitiFact that droughts do not directly affect hurricane season, but people sometimes conflate the two as they can occur at the same time under certain conditions.
"There actually isn't any basis for that," Andy Hazleton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, said. "Sometimes, drought can be associated with La Ni帽a winters, which we just had, and La Ni帽a tends to favor more hurricanes. We're heading into an El Ni帽o, which will likely mean fewer hurricanes but a wetter winter in Florida."
La Ni帽a is a climate pattern characterized by unusually cold ocean surface temperatures with less wind shear, while El Ni帽o refers to a pattern of unusually warm ocean temperatures with higher wind shear.
Hurricane seasons are driven primarily by the Atlantic basin鈥檚 sea surface temperatures and wind shear, Hazleton said. (The basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.) Warm waters act as a fuel source, providing tropical systems with heat energy, and low wind shear acts as a stabilizer, allowing storms to build without being torn apart.
But drought doesn鈥檛 always lead to fewer hurricanes, . Sometimes La Ni帽a causes drought in the winter then lingers to create an active hurricane season because it keeps high wind shear away.
The is one example of drought and fewer hurricanes not aligning, meteorologists said.
That year, Florida, Texas and Louisiana had and record-high temperatures, leading to wildfires. The Atlantic hurricane season was , producing 14 named storms, including 10 hurricanes. Experts the drought was initially fueled by a strong El Ni帽o, but as the hurricane season progressed, the transition to La Ni帽a reduced wind shear, allowing for more hurricane activity.
For the coming hurricane season that begins June 1, Florida is heading into a strong El Ni帽o weather pattern, which could mean a quieter season.
"Big El Ni帽o鈥檚 make a big difference!" Jeff Berardelli, WFLA Tampa Bay鈥檚 chief meteorologist and climate specialist , explaining that weaker El Ninos have led to major hurricanes. "This #hurricane season may defy the odds, but odds are for a 鈥榬elatively鈥� quieter season. Nevertheless, we always say, 鈥榠t only takes one,鈥� so be prepared!"
the strongest El Ni帽o episodes dating back to 1972 have correlated with a substantial decrease in hurricane activity 鈥� about 40% fewer storms than average.
There鈥檚 more of a connection between droughts and hurricanes when dry weather occurs in Africa, Hazleton said, because it inhibits thunderstorm clusters that move off the country鈥檚 coast from forming into Atlantic tropical cyclones. "That can have an impact on the hurricane seasons," he said, "but it鈥檚 not an easy one-to-one connection."
A persistent drought could bring more problems if a hurricane makes landfall.
Dry conditions can weaken tree roots, making them more prone to falling or breaking in strong winds. Dry soil makes water absorption difficult, which can lead to erosion and a higher risk of flooding.
Our Sources
- Facebook, , April 22, 2026
- CBS News, , April 23, 2026
- Drought.gov, Accessed April 27, 2026
- Weather.com, , April 16, 2025
- Gulf Coast News, , May 21, 2025
- American Meteorological Society, , April 1999
- American Meteorological Society, , Accessed April 27, 2026
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
- X.com, April 24, 2026
- Email interview, Andy Hazelton an associate scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, April 24, 2026
- Email interview, James Franklin, former NOAA weather forecaster, April 27, 2026
