This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Joseph J. Gonzalez is an associate professor of Global Studies at Appalachian State University.
The U.S. looks set to have its first-ever in 2025, after President-elect Donald Trump nominated U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida for the role. But don鈥檛 expect that to mean cozier relations between Havana and Washington.
Rubio, who if confirmed by the Senate will also be to hold the post, is one of the most hawkish members of Congress when it comes to the communist-run island. Indeed, one recent profile of Trump鈥檚 pick for top diplomat described Rubio as 鈥�.鈥�
So how will Rubio鈥檚 antipathy for the communist government in Cuba 鈥� alongside Trump鈥檚 desire to be seen as a dealmaker 鈥� affect U.S.-Cuban ties?
As a , I know that ties between the two countries for more than 60 years.
After Fulgencio Batista in 1959, Fidel Castro and of the Soviet Union against the United States. He also supported in Latin America and Africa,.
In response, successive U.S. presidents to the island by U.S. citizens since the 1960s.
There was a brief during the Obama administration.
But Trump with Cuba between 2016 to 2020 鈥� a period marked by a between Washington and Havana.
That may well happen again under Trump鈥檚 second administration 鈥� but that isn鈥檛 certain. There is also the potential for changes in U.S.-Cuban relations. Perhaps, even, there are reasons to believe the dynamic may improve.
From thaw to Cuban chill
No doubt, Trump and Rubio are communist government.
Rubio鈥檚 family to the U.S. in the 1950s before the triumph of Castro鈥檚 revolution in 1959.
As senator, he has of either the U.S. trade embargo with Cuba or travel restrictions on U.S. citizens wishing to visit the island.
When the Obama administration began establishing formal diplomatic relations with Cuba in 2014, for example, Rubio was among the plan鈥檚 .
As part of this thaw, President Barack travel restrictions, removed Cuba from the State Department鈥檚 list of nations that sponsor terrorism, and made it easier for Americans to send money to family members in Cuba.
Trump after entering the White House in 2017.
Though the administration never severed diplomatic relations, Trump鈥檚 State Department in Havana and for Cubans wishing to travel to the U.S.
His administration also on the list of nation鈥檚 that sponsor terrorism.
Reportedly, Cuba on the list of Trump鈥檚 priorities in his first term, unlike immigration. But he did wish to of Rubio and his Cuban American constituents in South Florida who strongly favored a tough line against Havana.
And as a senator, Rubio has been Cuban Americans鈥� foremost advocate and Cuba鈥檚 principal antagonist .
Trump's next moves
Though his stance on Cuba was less bold than Obama鈥檚, President Joe Biden imposed by the first Trump administration.
His administration, for example, to Cuba, along with other changes ostensibly the Cuban people, not the Cuban state. The U.S. embassy also began .
The embargo, however, remained enforced and untouched.
It is reasonable to assume that Trump will reverse Biden鈥檚 tentative measures. If the past offers any guide, the American embassy and with it suspend the processing of visa applications. Trump has also the humanitarian parole program through which Cubans have been able to enter the U.S. legally.
But there are limits to what the Trump administration can 鈥� or feels it can 鈥� do to punish Cuba.
Despite most , a large minority of the Cuban 茅migr茅 community still to their families in Cuba and when possible.
And though a of Cuban Americans voted for Trump, most also want .
Moscow's move in Havana
But appeasing Cuban Americans is just one concern for Trump. Other geopolitical factors could also influence U.S. policy.
Russia, for example, is making in Cuba and , while reopening Cold War-era base.
Given Havana鈥檚 with Moscow and the fact that both countries are isolated by portions of the international community, this closeness is understandable 鈥� and Trump鈥檚 may mitigate concern in Washington.
China, however, would be another matter.
President Xi Jinping鈥檚 government is and in Cuba, part of a pattern of China鈥檚 throughout Latin America.
In the past, Trump has taken pride in his China. Cuba could get caught in the crossfire.
But Trump鈥檚 past dealings with another pariah state allows for the intriguing possibility of a different course on Cuba.
U.S. relations with North Korea, like those with Cuba, of the Cold War. For better than half a century, U.S. policy has with the , much as it has with Cuba.
But that did not stop Trump from engaging with the communist state鈥檚 leader.
During his first term, he with President Kim Jong Un 鈥� in Vietnam, Singapore and even the Demilitarized Zone straddling North Korea and South Korea.
The art of the deal, Cuban-style
As the example of North Korea makes clear, Trump enjoys playing the on the international stage.
He Obama鈥檚 Nobel Peace Prize, which he won in 2009, stating that he believes .
And there is a deal to be had with Havana, one that would end the U.S. embargo in return for reparations for American-based during the Cuban Revolution.
Of course, unlike North Korea, Cuba is not a nuclear power and it cannot use to bring U.S. diplomats to the table. But being so close to the Florida coast 鈥� just 90 miles away 鈥� it can use the threat of China or Russian bases as a bargaining chip.
What is more, before becoming president, Trump鈥檚 record on Cuba was inconsistent. In 1999, the late leader Fidel Castro as a dictator, but in either late 2012 or early 2013, employees of the Trump Organization reportedly to scout possible locations for golf courses, hotels and casinos.
While running for president in 2015, Trump stated that he was 鈥溾�� with Obama鈥檚 Cuban policy and 鈥溾�� between Obama and Rubio regarding Cuba.
only in September 2016, when his campaign against Hillary Clinton took him to Miami in search of Florida鈥檚 electoral votes.
A new chapter in the cold war?
Certainly for now, for yet another, more disagreeable chapter in the U.S.鈥擟uban Cold War.
But Trump is unpredictable. Given that he run for president, he has less incentive to appease Cuban Americans and instead may look to for himself abroad.
Cuba watchers such as myself should at least entertain the possibility that relations between the U.S. and Cuba may be very different four years from now.
