After leaving their mark on both the 2020 and 2022 election cycles with near-record turnouts, young voters are expected to again have a tangible impact on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden鈥檚 victory was boosted by a sweeping win over his opponent, former president Donald Trump, amongst young voters. Voters under the age of 30, according to the Pew Research Center, favored Biden over Trump by a whopping 24 percentage points in 2020 (Biden 59%, Trump 35%).
Biden鈥檚 victory in the first-time and young adult voter category was made all the more paramount by their huge turnout to the polls, which was a vast increase from 2016 and the highest young voter participation rate in decades.
鈥淚 have said this multiple times and I鈥檒l say it again: youth have, historically, not turned out,鈥� said Jayden D鈥橭nofrio, Chairman of the Florida Future Leaders PAC. 鈥淏ut that changed in 2018, that changed in 2020 and it changed in 2022.鈥�
More than half鈥攁n estimated 55%鈥攐f eligible voters aged 18 to 29 cast their ballots in the 2020 presidential election, according to , a sharp uptick from the 44% turnout from that group in the most recent 2016 presidential election. That 55% in 2020 also marked the largest young voter turnout in over 40 years, the highest since 55.4% of 18- to 29-year-olds voted in the 1972 presidential election.
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The momentum from 2020 rolled over to the midterm elections as young voters turned out to the polls at high rates. An estimated 23% of eligible voters aged 18 to 29 cast a ballot in the 2022 midterm elections, according to the at Tufts University.
Though 2022 yielded a 5% decrease from the 28% of young voters that turned out for the 2018 midterms, it still represents a significant increase from the eye-poppingly low 13% turnout in the 2014 midterms.
But the seeds of this turnout increase among voters were sown before Biden or Trump were even campaigning for the oval office. Signs started to show when former President Barack Obama was on the trail.
鈥淚 will tell you, the youth vote was particularly strong in both of Obama鈥檚 elections,鈥� said Dr. Kevin Wagner, dean and professor of political science at Florida Atlantic University.
In the 2008 presidential election between Obama and Sen. John McCain, an estimated 52% of eligible voters between the ages of 18 and 29 cast a ballot, according to , which stood as a record-high in the 21st century and the most since the same percentage turned out in 1992.
Those numbers dipped slightly to 50% in Obama鈥檚 second election cycle in 2012, falling again in 2016 to 44% in 2016 before the record turnout that the 2020 presidential election drew.
鈥淚n fact, I think in one of Obama鈥檚 elections, the 18 to 25 turnout was actually a higher turnout than over 65, which is very, very unusual,鈥� Wagner said. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Biden reached quite those levels, but the youth vote did turn out relatively well in those elections.鈥�
Now, as Biden and Trump gear up for a rematch in November, young voters are expected to again be a driving force in the 2024 presidential election.
Only 鈥溾�� gave Biden the edge in 2020, and the latest poll published by , a leading polling aggregator, said the incumbent and former President Trump are 鈥渓ocked in a practically tied race.鈥�
In this cycle, however, experts say more and more young voters are being driven to the polling stations by specific issues rather than allegiance to a given political party.
The Supreme Court鈥檚 polarizing decision in June 2022 to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which protected the right to an abortion, was forecasted then鈥攁nd still is now鈥攖o be a hot button issue amongst young voters, one that has a tangible effect on their lives and would motivate them to hit the polls.
But experts say young voters in this election are being driven by a multitude of issues鈥攖he cost of education, the cost of living, climate change, multiple wars happening overseas鈥攏ot just the issue of the right to an abortion.
鈥淚 think the cost of education is the biggest issue,鈥� Wagner said of what appears to be most pressing to young voters. 鈥淐ertainly for many young voters the conflict in the Middle East, especially Israel, has become a pretty big issue for them as well. And one of the things that seems to be consistently important is the high cost of living.鈥�
In the 2022 midterms, 59% of youth鈥攖he highest of any age group鈥攕aid President Biden was 鈥渘ot a factor鈥� in their vote, according to a survey done by CIRCLE. This signaled to many that in a presidential election in 2024, young voters will again be driven by issues, not candidates.
Furthermore, a survey conducted in December by Harvard University鈥檚 Institute of Politics found that 69% of young women and 55% of young men described the issue of the right to an abortion as 鈥渧ery important.鈥� And as protests over the war in Gaza have turned to unrest and even violence at university campuses across the country, that, too, is expected to be a deciding factor for many young voters come November.
鈥淭here is a lot of availability,鈥� D鈥橭nofrio said, 鈥渢o really cast immense influence for youth here in this election.鈥�
No matter which way they cast their ballot, the youth voter turnout in this election will be their chance for an entire generation鈥檚 voice to be heard.
鈥淭his is what I always tell my students when they ask me, 'Should I vote': If you want to be accounted for, if you want your issues to matter,鈥� said Wagner, 鈥渢hen you have to turn out.鈥�
This story was produced by MediaLab@FAU, a project of Florida Atlantic University School of Communication and Multimedia Studies, as part of a content sharing partnership with the SA国际传谋 newsroom. The reporter can be reached .
