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As pundits and politicos spar over whether Robert F. Kennedy Jr.鈥檚 presidential campaign will factor into the outcome of the 2024 election, one thing is clear:
Kennedy鈥檚 political following is built on a movement that seeks to legitimize conspiracy theories.
His claims decrying vaccines have roiled scientists and medical experts and stoked anger over whether his work harms children. He has made suggestions about the cause of COVID-19 that he acknowledges sound racist and antisemitic.
Bolstered by his famous name and family鈥檚 legacy, his campaign of conspiracy theories has gained an electoral and . He is running as an independent 鈥� having abandoned his pursuit of the Democratic Party nomination 鈥� and more than $15 million. A political action committee pledged to spend between $10 million and $15 million to get his name on the ballot in 10 states.
Even though he spent the past two decades as a prominent leader of the anti-vaccine movement, Kennedy rejects a blanket 鈥渁nti-vax鈥� label that he in July makes him 鈥渓ook crazy, like a conspiracy theorist.鈥�
But Kennedy draws bogus conclusions from scientific work. He employs 鈥渃ircumstantial evidence鈥� as if it is proof. In TV, and political appearances for his campaign in 2023, Kennedy steadfastly maintained:
- Vaccines cause autism.
- No childhood vaccines 鈥渉ave ever been tested in a safety study pre-licensing.鈥�
- There is 鈥渢remendous circumstantial evidence鈥� that psychiatric drugs cause mass shootings, and the National Institutes of Health refuses to research the link out of deference to pharmaceutical companies.
- Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine were discredited as COVID-19 treatments so COVID-19 vaccines could be granted emergency use authorization, a win for Big Pharma.
- Exposure to the pesticide atrazine contributes to gender dysphoria in children.
- 鈥渢argeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.鈥�
For Kennedy, the conspiracies aren鈥檛 limited to public health. He 鈥渕embers of the CIA鈥� were involved in the assassination of his uncle, John F. Kennedy. 鈥渂elieve that (Sirhan) Sirhan鈥檚 bullets ever hit my father,鈥� Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, D-N.Y. the 2004 presidential election was stolen from Democratic candidate John Kerry.
News organizations, including , have documented why those claims, and , are false, speculative or conspiracy-minded.
Kennedy has sat for numerous interviews and dismissed the critics, not with the grievance and bluster of former President Donald Trump, but with a calm demeanor. He amplifies the alleged plot and repeats dubious scientific evidence and historical detail.
Will his approach translate to votes? According to since November of a three-way matchup between President Joe Biden, Trump and Kennedy, Kennedy pulled 16% to 22% of respondents.
Kennedy鈥檚 movement exemplifies the resonance of conspiratorial views. Misinformers with organized efforts are rewarded with money and loyalty. But that doesn鈥檛 make the claims true.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.鈥檚 campaign based on false theories is PolitiFact鈥檚 2023 Lie of the Year.
How an environmental fighter took up vaccines
Kennedy, the third of 11 children, was 9 when he was picked up Nov. 22, 1963, from the Sidwell Friends school in Washington, D.C., because Lee Harvey Oswald had shot and killed Uncle Jack. He was 14 when he learned that his father was shot by Sirhan Sirhan following a victory speech after the California Democratic presidential primary.
RFK Jr., who turns 70 in January, wouldn鈥檛 begin to publicly doubt the government鈥檚 findings about the assassinations until .
As a teenager, he . He was expelled from two boarding schools and at 16 for marijuana possession. None of that slowed an elite path through higher education, including Harvard University for his bachelor鈥檚 degree and the University of Virginia for his law degree.
He as an assistant district attorney in Manhattan in 1982, but failed the bar exam and resigned the next year. Two months later, he was arrested for heroin possession after falling ill on a flight. His involved a drug treatment program, a and volunteer work with a local fishermen鈥檚 association that patrolled the Hudson River for evidence of pollution that could lead to lawsuits.
Kennedy鈥檚 involvement with Hudson Riverkeeper and the National Resources Defense Council ushered in a long chapter of environmental litigation and advocacy.
An outdoorsman and falconer, Kennedy sued companies and government agencies over pollution in the Hudson River and New York watershed. (He joined the New York bar .) He earned a master鈥檚 degree in environmental law at Pace University, where he started a to primarily assist Riverkeeper鈥檚 legal work. He helped negotiate a 1997 agreement that protected upstate New York reservoirs supplying New York City鈥檚 drinking water.
In 1999, Kennedy founded the Waterkeeper Alliance, an international group of local river and bay-keeper organizations that act as their 鈥渃ommunity鈥檚 coast guard,鈥� he told . He stayed with the group , when he left 鈥渢o devote himself, full time, to other issues.鈥�
On Joe Rogan鈥檚 podcast in June, Kennedy said that virtually all of his litigation involved 鈥渟ome scientific controversy. And so, I'm comfortable with reading science and I know how to read it critically.鈥�
PolitiFact did not receive a response from Kennedy鈥檚 campaign for this story.
He became concerned about mercury pollution from coal-burning power plants; can build up in fish, posing a risk to humans and wildlife. As he traveled around the country, women started appearing in the front rows of his mercury lectures.
鈥淭hey would say to me in kind of a respectful but vaguely scolding way, 鈥業f you're really interested in mercury contamination exposure to children, you need to look at the vaccines,鈥欌�� Kennedy told Rogan, whose show 11 million listeners per episode.
Kennedy said the women sounded 鈥渞ational鈥� as they explained a link between their children鈥檚 autism and vaccines. 鈥淭hey weren鈥檛 excitable,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd they had done their research, and I was like, 鈥業 should be listening to these people, even if they鈥檙e wrong.鈥欌��
He did more than listen. In June 2005, Rolling Stone and Salon co-published Kennedy鈥檚 article 鈥淒eadly Immunity.鈥� Kennedy told about a study that revealed a mercury-based additive once used in vaccines, thimerosal, 鈥渕ay have caused autism in thousands of kids.鈥� Kennedy alleged that preeminent health agencies 鈥� the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration, the World Health Organization 鈥� had colluded with vaccine manufacturers 鈥渢o conceal the data.鈥�
Kennedy鈥檚 article as inaccurate and missing context. He left out the ultimate conclusion of the 2003 , by Thomas Verstraeten, which said 鈥渘o consistent significant associations were found between (thimerosal-containing vaccines) and neurodevelopmental outcomes.鈥�
Kennedy didn鈥檛 clearly state that, , thimerosal in childhood vaccines when his article was published. He also misrepresented the comments of health agency leaders at a June 2000 meeting, pulling portions of a 286-page transcript that Kennedy鈥檚 collusion narrative.
Scientists who have studied thimerosal have found no evidence that the additive, used to prevent germ growth, causes harm, according to a FAQ page about thimerosal. Unlike the mercury in some fish, CDC says, thimerosal 鈥渄oesn鈥檛 stay in the body, and is unlikely to make us sick.鈥� has not established a link between thimerosal and autism.
By the end of July 2005, Kennedy鈥檚 Salon article had been appended with five correction notes. In 2011, Salon the article. It .
Salon鈥檚 retraction was part of a broader conspiracy of caving 鈥渦nder pressure from the pharmaceutical industry,鈥� Kennedy told Rogan. The then-Salon editor , saying they 鈥渃aved to pressure from the incontrovertible truth and our journalistic consciences.鈥�
Kennedy has not wavered in his belief: 鈥淲ell, I do believe that autism does come from vaccines,鈥� he Fox News鈥� Jesse Watters in July.
David Remnick, editor of The New Yorker, interviewed for a July story. Noting that Kennedy was focusing more on vaccine testing rather than outright opposition, Remnick asked him whether he was having second thoughts.
鈥淚鈥檝e read the science on autism and I can tell you, if you want to know,鈥� Kennedy said. 鈥淒avid, you鈥檝e got to answer this question: If it didn鈥檛 come from the vaccines, then where is it coming from?鈥�
How COVID-19 helped RFK Jr.鈥檚 vaccine-skeptical crusade
In 2016, Kennedy the World Mercury Project to address mercury in fish, medicines and vaccines. In 2018, Children鈥檚 Health Defense, a legal advocacy group that works 鈥渁ggressively to eliminate harmful exposures,鈥� its website says.
Since at least 2019, Children鈥檚 Health Defense has supported and challenging vaccination requirements, and social media companies鈥� misinformation policies (including a against Facebook and The Poynter Institute, which owns PolitiFact).
From the beginning, the group has stories about children 鈥渋njured鈥� by environmental toxins or vaccines. This year, it launched a national bus tour to collect testimonials. The organization also produces documentary-style films and books, including Kennedy鈥檚 鈥淭he Wuhan Cover-Up and the Terrifying Bioweapons Arms Race鈥� and 鈥淭he Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health.鈥�
In 2020, Children鈥檚 Health Defense and the anti-vaccine movement turned attention to the emerging public health crisis.
Kolina Koltai, a senior researcher at Bellingcat, an investigative journalism group, had seen anti-vaccine groups try to seize on Zika and Ebola outbreaks, with little success. But the COVID-19 pandemic provided 鈥渢he exact scenario鈥� needed to create mass dissent: widespread fear and an information vacuum.
Children鈥檚 Health Defense in March and April 2020 claiming the 鈥渧iral terror鈥� was an attempt to enact the 鈥済lobal immunization agenda鈥� and a 鈥渄ream come true鈥� for dictators. The group echoed these points in ads and social media posts and grew its audience, including .
On Twitter, Children鈥檚 Health Defense outperformed news outlets that met NewsGuard鈥檚 criteria for trustworthiness from the third quarter of 2020 to the fourth quarter of 2021, according to a by the German Marshall Fund think tank, even as Children鈥檚 Health Defense published debunked about COVID-19 and vaccines.
In 2019, Children鈥檚 Health Defense it had $2.94 million in revenue, and paid Kennedy a $255,000 salary. Its revenue grew 440% through 2021, according to , hitting $15.99 million. Kennedy鈥檚 salary increased to $497,013. (Its 2022 Form 990 for tax disclosure is not yet public. Kennedy has been on leave from the organization since he entered the presidential race in April.)
On social media, the message had limits. Meta removed Kennedy鈥檚 personal Instagram account in for spreading false claims about COVID-19 and vaccines, the company said, but left his Facebook account active. A year and a half later, Meta banned Children鈥檚 Health Defense鈥檚 main Facebook and Instagram accounts for 鈥渞epeatedly鈥� violating its medical misinformation policies. .
As the group鈥檚 face, Kennedy became a leader of a collective movement opposed to masks and stay-at-home orders, said Dr. David H. Gorski, managing editor of Science-Based Medicine and a professor of surgery and oncology at the Wayne State University School of Medicine.
鈥淭he pandemic produced a new generation of anti-vaxxers who had either not been prominent before or who were not really anti-vax before,鈥� Gorski said. 鈥淏ut none of them had the same cultural cachet that comes with being a Kennedy that RFK Jr. has.鈥�
Rallying a crowd before the Lincoln Memorial on Jan. 23, 2022, Kennedy protested COVID-19 countermeasures alongside commentator Lara Logan and anti-vaccine Dr. Robert Malone. The crowd reading 鈥淣uremberg Trials 2.0鈥� and 鈥渇ree choice, no masks, no tests, no vax.鈥� When Kennedy took the stage, mention of his role with Children鈥檚 Health Defense prompted an .
In his speech, Kennedy to denounce the 鈥渢urnkey totalitarianism鈥� of a society that requires vaccinations to travel, uses digital currency and 5G and is monitored by Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates鈥� satellites: 鈥淓ven in Hitler鈥檚 Germany, you could cross the Alps into Switzerland. You could hide in an attic like Anne Frank did.鈥�
Days later, facing criticism from , the actor Cheryl Hines, and Holocaust memorial organizations, Kennedy issued a for his comments.
Asked about his wife鈥檚 comment on , he said his remarks were taken out of context, but he had to apologize because of his family.
Recycle. Repeat. Repeat.
When he鈥檚 asked about his views, Kennedy calmly searches his rhetorical laboratory for recycled talking points, selective research findings, the impression of voluminous valid studies, speculation, and inarguable authority from his experience. He refers to institutions, researchers and reports, by name, in quick succession, shifting points before interviewers can note what was misleading or cherry-picked.
There is power in repetition. Take his persistent claim that vaccines are not safety tested.
- In July, he told 鈥�,鈥� 鈥淰accines are the only medical product that is not safety tested prior to licensure.鈥�
- On on 鈥淧BS NewsHour,鈥� Kennedy said vaccines are 鈥渢he only medical product or medical device that is allowed to get a license without engaging in safety tests.鈥�
- On Dec. 15, he 鈥檚 Kasie Hunt that no childhood vaccines have 鈥渆ver been tested in a safety study pre-licensing.鈥�
This is false. Vaccines, including the , are before they are licensed. Researchers gather initial safety data and information about side effects during phase one clinical trials on groups of 20 to 100 people. If no safety concerns are identified, subsequent phases of larger numbers of volunteers to evaluate a vaccine鈥檚 effectiveness and monitor side effects.
Kennedy sometimes says that some vaccines weren鈥檛 tested against inactive injections or placebos. That has an element of truth: If using a placebo would disadvantage or potentially endanger a patient, researchers might test new vaccines with known side effects.
But vaccines are among 鈥渢he most tested and vetted鈥� pharmaceutical products given to children, said Patricia Stinchfield, a pediatric nurse practitioner and the president of the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases.
Kennedy encourages parents to research questions on their own, because doctors and other experts are invariably compromised.
鈥淭hey are taking as gospel what the CDC tells them,鈥� Kennedy said on Bari Weiss鈥� 鈥淗onestly鈥� in June.
Public health agencies have been 鈥渟erving the mercantile interests of the pharmaceutical companies, and you cannot believe anything that they say,鈥� Kennedy said.
Experts fret that the Kennedy name carries weight.
鈥淲hen he steps forward and he says the government鈥檚 lying to you, the FDA is lying to you, the CDC is lying to you, he has credence, because he鈥檚 seen as someone who is a product of the government,鈥� said Dr. Paul Offit, a pediatrics professor in the Children鈥檚 Hospital of Philadelphia鈥檚 infectious diseases division and the director of the Vaccine Education Center. 鈥淗e鈥檚 like a whistleblower in that sense. He鈥檚 been behind the scenes, so he knows what it looks like, and he鈥檚 telling you that you鈥檙e being lied to.鈥�
Kennedy name-drops studies that don鈥檛 support his commentary. When speaking with Rogan, Kennedy encouraged the podcaster鈥檚 staff to show a particular 2010 study that found that exposure to the herbicide atrazine caused some male frogs to develop female sex organs and become infertile.
Kennedy has repeatedly invoked that frog study to support his position that 鈥渨e should all be looking at鈥� atrazine and its impact on human beings. The researcher behind the study in June that Kennedy鈥檚 atrazine claims were 鈥渟peculation鈥� given the vast differences between humans and amphibians. link atrazine exposure to gender dysphoria.
In July, Kennedy floated the idea that COVID-19 could have been 鈥渆thnically targeted鈥� to 鈥渁ttack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.鈥� The claim was , but Kennedy insisted that it was backed by a July 2020 study by Chinese researchers. That didn鈥檛 find that Chinese people were less affected by the virus. It said one of the virus鈥檚 receptors seemed to be absent in the Amish and in Ashkenazi Jews and theorized that genetic factors might increase COVID-19 severity.
Five months later, Kennedy invoked the study and he was right: 鈥淚 can understand why people were disturbed by those remarks. They certainly weren't antisemitic. ... I was talking about a true study, an NIH-funded study.鈥�
鈥淚 wish I hadn鈥檛 said them, but, you know, what I said was true.鈥�
Kennedy answered using scientific terms (鈥渇urin cleave,鈥� 鈥淎CE2 receptor鈥�), but he ignored in the study. He didn鈥檛 account for how the original virus has evolved since 2020, or how the study emphasized these potential mutations were rare and would have little to no public health impact.
Public health experts say that racial disparities in COVID-19 infection and mortality 鈥� in the U.S., Black and Hispanic people often faced more severe COVID-19 outcomes 鈥� resulted from , not genetics.
Kennedy says 鈥渃ircumstantial evidence鈥� is enough.
Antidepressants, or SSRIs, are linked to school shootings, he told listeners on a livestream hosted by Elon Musk. The government should have begun studying the issue years ago, he said, because 鈥渢here鈥檚 tremendous circumstantial evidence that those, like SSRIs and benzos and other drugs, are doing this.鈥�
Experts in psychiatry have told and that there is no causal relationship between antidepressants and shootings. With 13% of the adult population using antidepressants, experts say that if the link were true they would expect higher rates of violence. Also, the on U.S. school shootings show most shooters were not using psychiatric medicines, which have an anti-violence effect.
Conspiracy theories, consequences and a presidential campaign
The anti-censorship candidate frames his first bid for public office as a response to 鈥�18 years鈥� of being shunned for his views 鈥� partly by the government, but also by private companies.
鈥淵ou're protected so much from censorship if you're running for president,鈥� Kennedy conservative Canadian podcaster and psychologist Jordan Peterson in June.
In June, Kennedy鈥檚 Instagram account was 鈥� with a verified badge noting he is a public figure. Meta鈥檚 rules on misinformation do not apply to active political candidates. (PolitiFact is a partner of Meta鈥檚 Third Party Fact-Checking Program, which seeks to reduce false content on the platform.)
In July, he was invited before the Republican-led House Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government. He repeated that he had 鈥渘ever been anti-vax,鈥� and railed against the Biden White House for to remove his January 2021 tweet that said Baseball Hall of Famer Hank Aaron鈥檚 death was 鈥減art of a wave of suspicious deaths among elderly,鈥� weeks after Aaron, 86, received a COVID-19 vaccine. The medical examiner鈥檚 office said Aaron died from unrelated natural causes.
Throughout 2023, alternative media has embraced Kennedy. He has podcasts such as Peterson鈥檚, and has also participated in profiles by , and .
鈥淵ou鈥檙e like, 鈥楤ut you're talking right now. I鈥檓 listening to you. I hear your words. You鈥檙e not being censored,鈥欌�� said Whitney Phillips, an assistant professor in the School of Journalism and Communication at the University of Oregon who researches how news media covers conspiracy theories and their proponents. 鈥淏ut a person can believe they鈥檙e being censored because they鈥檝e internalized that they鈥檙e going to be,鈥� or they know making the claim will land with their audience.
Time will tell whether his message resonates with voters.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato鈥檚 Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Kennedy may be a 鈥減laceholder鈥� for voters who are dissatisfied with Trump and Biden and will take a third option when offered by pollsters.
The only 2024 candidate whose favorability ratings are more positive than negative? It鈥檚 Kennedy, according to . However, a much higher percentage of voters are unfamiliar with him than they are with Trump or Biden 鈥� about a quarter 鈥� and Kennedy's favorability edge has decreased as his campaign has gone on.
Nevertheless, third-party candidates historically finish with a fraction of their polling, Kondik said, and voters will likely have more names and parties on their fall ballots, including philosopher Cornel West, physician Jill Stein and a potential slate from the movement.
Kennedy was popular with conservative commentators before he became an independent, and he has avoided pointedly criticizing Trump, except on COVID-19 lockdowns. When NBC News asked what he thought of Trump鈥檚 2020 election lies, Kennedy said he believed Trump lost, but that, in general, people who believe elections were stolen 鈥渟hould be listened to.鈥� Kennedy is one of them; he still says that the 2004 presidential election was 鈥渟tolen鈥� from Kerry in favor of Republican George W. Bush, though it wasn鈥檛.
American Values 2024 will spend to get Kennedy鈥檚 name on the ballot in 10 states including Arizona, California, Indiana, New York and Texas. Those are five of the toughest states for ballot access, said Richard Winger, co-editor of Ballot Access News.
Four of Kennedy鈥檚 siblings Kennedy鈥檚 decision to run as an independent 鈥渄angerous鈥� and 鈥減erilous鈥� to the country. 鈥淏obby might share the same name as our father, but he does not share the same values, vision or judgment,鈥� the group wrote in a joint statement.
Kennedy brushes it off when asked, saying he has a large family, and some members support him.
On her podcast, Weiss asked whether Kennedy worried his position on autism and vaccines would cloud his other positions and cost him votes. His answer ignored his history.
鈥淪how me where I got it wrong,鈥� he said, 鈥渁nd I鈥檒l change.鈥�
In a campaign constructed by lies, that might be the biggest one.
PolitiFact Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.
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