Mexico and Peru are holding elections Sunday with one big problem and one bright prospect in common.
The problem: both events are maddening reminders of what鈥檚 wrong with Latin America. The prospect: recent COVID-19 announcements in both countries raise the encouraging possibility that the pandemic 鈥� and the new standing it鈥檚 given science in the region 鈥� could help correct what鈥檚 wrong with Latin America.
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Peru鈥檚 presidential election is the especially maddening reminder. Voters have to choose between socialist Pedro Castillo, a guy who can鈥檛 decide whether he鈥檚 a Leninist or a fascist, and arch-right winger Keiko Fujimori, a woman who seems fine with just the fascist tag. It's a runoff election, but there鈥檚 really only one result Peruvians can check off: even more governmental dysfunction than they've already got.
Mexico鈥檚 midterm election choices aren鈥檛 much easier to stomach. On one side is President Andr茅s Manuel L贸pez Obrador, known as AMLO, and his leftist MORENA coalition; on the other is a coalition led by the corrupt and decrepit Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. If AMLO wins 鈥� meaning if MORENA captures two-thirds of Mexico鈥檚 lower house of Congress 鈥� he'll likely see a green light to turn the authoritarian populism he鈥檚 been fine-tuning into full caudillo mode. If he loses, the PRI becomes Mexico鈥檚 main opposition force.
Make that Mexico鈥檚 second most important opposition force. The strongest is el narco 鈥� the bloodthirsty drug cartels that have murdered almost 90 local candidates during this midterm election cycle.
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At this grim point you probably want to hear the encouraging possibility. Unfortunately, it also involves a lot of mortality. To wit: both elections come on the heels of both countries being forced to acknowledge their official COVID-19 death tolls are far higher than previously reported.
But trust me, this has a silver lining.
This week Peru had to announce that due to a review by independent scientists, its actual COVID fatalities are about 185,000 鈥� triple the government鈥檚 number. That gives Peru the world鈥檚 highest per-capita death count and the fifth-highest overall.
It puts Peru just behind Mexico 鈥� which this week upped its own COVID mortality stat to almost 228,000 after a review by health ministry scientists. Many of those scientists insist it鈥檚 much higher, perhaps topping 300,000. In fact, scientists鈥� surveys of 鈥渆xcess鈥� deaths in Mexico since the pandemic began forced the government to concede in March that the real COVID toll is some 60 percent higher than its official data.
For all the tragedy and sorrow the pandemic has dumped on Latin America, it's also witnessed a lot of folks in white lab coats pushing back against their governments' dishonesty and negligence.
Did I use the word 鈥渟cientists鈥� enough in the last couple paragraphs? I hope so, because for all the tragedy and sorrow the pandemic has dumped on Latin America 鈥� arguably the region hardest hit 鈥� it has also witnessed a lot of folks in white lab coats pushing back against the dishonest COVID narratives of leaders like Mexico鈥檚 AMLO.
CLOWNISH POPULISTS, NEGLIGENT ELITES
From the pandemic鈥檚 start last year, AMLO has almost clownishly downplayed its severity 鈥� despite becoming infected himself, like two of the hemisphere鈥檚 other clownish populists, right-wing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Peru鈥檚 presidents (there鈥檝e been three during the pandemic) haven鈥檛 been as irresponsible in that regard 鈥� but they represent a governing class that has irresponsibly left the country with South America鈥檚 as a share of GDP. Dr. Godofredo Talavera, head of Peru's medical federation, had long warned the country would be waylaid by a pandemic as a result 鈥� and he鈥檚 been vindicated.
When COVID鈥檚 finally just another virus in Latin America, the fact that scientists had the final word on the pandemic 鈥� and the AMLOs, Bolsonaros and negligent elites didn't 鈥� could go a long way toward raising the low stature they and what they stand for has historically suffered in the region, while diminishing the profile of the AMLOs, Bolsonaros and negligent elites.
My colleague Mac Margolis presciently anticipated this in April 2020, in the pandemic鈥檚 early days, when Bolsonaro鈥檚 then-Health Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta refused to indulge the president鈥檚 deadly denialism 鈥� and how scientists like him around the continent were winning newfound respect. 鈥淥ne of the [pandemic鈥檚] rare pluses,鈥� Margolis wrote, 鈥渋s that health professionals suddenly have become some of Latin America鈥檚 most credible figures.鈥�
And that, let鈥檚 hope, will make the politicos they鈥檙e confronting, contradicting and counseling want to act more credibly too.
