Almost all of Brightline's trains run on time, but worries are mounting that the passenger train service is barreling toward a debt crisis earlier than anticipated just a few months ago.
Credit ratings agency S&P Global cut its already low grade on some Brightline bonds earlier this month and withdrew its ratings altogether. S&P warned a financial restructuring of Brightline鈥檚 borrowing is 鈥渁 virtual certainty in about six months.鈥�
The ratings agency last cut its view of Brightline鈥檚 IOUs in late December. It predicted a 鈥渉igher probability of default by January 2027鈥� in its analysis at that time.
The early March update indicates Brightline鈥檚 finances are deteriorating faster than expected just three months earlier.
The company did not respond to a request for comment.
We expect a distressed exchange to be a virtual certainty in about six monthsS&P Global
鈥淏rightline Trains Florida continues to significantly underperform our original expectations,鈥� S&P Managing Director Trevor D鈥橭lier-Lees wrote in his most recent debt rating cut. S&P first downgraded the train service鈥檚 debt rating to junk bond status in May 2025. Fellow credit agency Fitch was the first to call Brightline鈥檚 borrowing rating junk a few weeks earlier. There have been three additional rounds of downgrades of Brightline鈥檚 borrowing rating since.
Brightline is scheduled to pay $162 million in borrowing payments this year. It skipped an interest payment on one set of bonds earlier this year, marking the second postponed payment. It is allowed to defer three interest payments on these specific bonds before violating its loan terms.
The debt agencies have been growing more concerned that Brightline has not been successful in getting more passengers to pay higher fares. Ridership between South Florida stations was up 25% in January from a year ago, but the average fare fell 16%.
Brightline has yet to release its full year 2025 financial results to its lenders. D鈥橭lier-Lees at S&P expects there will be less money than expected available to Brightline to pay its debts. In December, he expected the company to have $191 million available to it. Now, he estimated Brightline will have $160 million of total liquidity. 鈥淭he alarming depletion of the project鈥檚 liquidity raises concerns around the quality of information provided,鈥� he wrote. 鈥淢oreover, it indicates that the project faces an increased risk of a distressed exchange.鈥�
The credit warning called that 鈥渢antamount to a default.鈥�
Brightline requested S&P Global withdraw its credit ratings, which the agency granted. It is not clear what led to the request, though such actions can be taken if there is a disagreement between the credit analysts and a company over ratings criteria.
S&P warned if it had continued rating Brightline bonds, they were at risk of more downgrades
READ MORE: Ridership and revenue is growing for Brightline, but financial worries persist
Brightline has been looking for investors to take a 鈥渟ubstantial鈥� ownership stake for months. It has not publicly discussed the form of such a deal, though it may involve a debt-for-equity swap. Such a transaction would have existing lenders exchange their IOUs for stock in the company. Brightline has pledged 鈥渆quity proceeds would be used to repay principal and interest of existing debt and to increase cash reserves.鈥�
Trains can still run should Brightline default on its loans. The company鈥檚 total debt load is more than $4 billion, spread over different timelines and with different seniority. Revenue bonds issued in 2024 recently traded for 33 cents on the dollar, a clear sign of growing market worries about Brightline鈥檚 ability to make its payments on time.
Former Eurostar CEO Nicolas Petrovic was named CEO of Brightline in January.
