This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Fr茅d茅ric Dimanche is a professor and former director of the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Toronto Metropolitan University and Kelley A. McClinchey is teaching faculty of Geography and Environmental Studies at Wilfrid Laurier University.
With an upcoming FIFA World Cup being staged across the nation, 2026 was supposed to be a to the United States, driven in part by hordes of arriving soccer fans.
And yet, the . While the rest of the world saw a travel bump in 2025, with , the U.S. saw a downturn. The number of foreign tourists who came to the United States during the year 鈥� a sharper decline than , the last time, outside the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, that the industry was gripped by fears of a travel slump.
Policy stances from the Trump administration on everything from immigration to tariffs, along with currency swings and stricter border controls, have seemingly proved a turnoff to travelers from other countries, especially Canadians 鈥� the single largest source of foreign tourists for the United States. Canadian travel to the U.S. fell by . But it is not just visitors from Canada who are choosing to avoid the United States. Travel from , among others, has also shrunk.
We . And while we don鈥檛 possess a crystal ball, we believe that the tourism decline of 2025 could well continue through 2026. The evidence appears clear: Washington鈥檚 ongoing policies are . In other words, the tourism industry is in the midst of a 鈥淭rump slump.鈥�
Fewer Canadians heading south
The impact of Donald Trump鈥檚 policies are perhaps most pronounced when looking north of the U.S. border. According to the U.S. Travel Association, Canadian visitors generated approximately 20.4 million visits and roughly US$20.5 billion in visitor spending in 2024, .
The economic impact of fewer Canadian visitors in 2025 that depend heavily on people driving across the border for retail, restaurants, casinos and short-stay hotels.
The sharp drop in is a direct indication that . This has led elected officials and in recent months, sometimes with 鈥�.鈥�
And it isn鈥檛 just border states. In Las Vegas, between Canadian and U.S. dollars for rooms and gambling vouchers in a bid to attract customers.
Winter-sun states, such as Florida, Arizona and California, are facing both fewer short-stay arrivals and .鈥� Reports indicate a noticeable increase in Canadians listing U.S. properties in Florida and Arizona , threatening lodging, health care spending and property tax revenue.
Economic and safety concerns
Economic policies pursued by the Trump administration appear to be among the main reasons visitors are staying away from the U.S. Multiple tariff announcements 鈥� pushing tariffs to the 鈥� along with tougher and an aggressive have contributed to a negative perception of the U.S. among would-be tourists.
Many foreigners report feeling unwelcome or uncertain about travel to the U.S., and to spend domestically, instead. This significantly to the U.S. in 2025.
Meanwhile, exchange rates and inflation have further affected some aspiring travelers, especially Canadians. The Canadian dollar was weakened in 2025, . This disproportionately affected day-trip and shopping-driven border crossings.
Travelers are also staying away from the U.S. concerns. Several countries have posted travel advisories about the , with . Although most worries are related to increased border controls, recent by immigration agents have added to potential visitors鈥� decisions to .
A wake-up call for the US
The current tourism outlook is . Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the industry association World Travel and Tourism Council, has as a 鈥渨ake-up call鈥� for the U.S. government.
鈥淭he world鈥檚 biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,鈥� she said in May 2025. 鈥淲hile other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the 鈥榗losed鈥� sign.鈥�
According to estimates, the U.S. stood to lose about in 2025 as travelers chose to travel elsewhere.
The disappointing figures for U.S. tourism follow a longer trend. The share of global international travel heading to the U.S. and was expected to drop to 4.8% in 2025. Meanwhile, arrivals to other top tourism destinations, including France, Greece, Mexico and Italy, are set to increase.
The decline is also being , with every major global region sending fewer people to the U.S. for work.
A World Cup bump?
So what does that mean for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, with 75% of the soccer matches being hosted across the United States? Traditionally, host nations benefit from sports events, although . After a disappointing year, the U.S. tourism sector expects the World Cup to boost visits and revenue.
But Trump鈥檚 foreign policy .
A new of $250 and plans for of some visitors make travel to the U.S. less attractive. And there are growing following some of Trump鈥檚 policies, including his aggressive stance about Greenland.
Former FIFA President Sepp Blatter has suggested that for the World Cup.
It remains to be seen whether fans will follow his call. Bookings for flights and hotels after the dates and venues of games were announced in December.
But current political rhetoric is , especially given that . The U.S. government has imposed travel bans on Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran and Haiti, all of which have qualified for the World Cup.
European soccer leaders have even discussed , although such an action is , given the revenue at stake for national teams and football associations.
Will the 鈥楾rump slump鈥� continue?
White House policies look unlikely to drastically change in the next few months. And this causes concern for tourism professionals, although .
To make matters worse, federal funding for Brand USA, the national destination marketing organization, was cut deeply in mid-2025, leading to staff shortages that have reduced the country鈥檚 capacity to .
Soccer fans tend to be passionate about following their national side. And this could offset some of the impact of the Trump travel slump.
Yet, with and the international reputation of the U.S. as a tourism destination damaged, we believe it is unlikely that the tourism industry will recover in 2026. It will take a long time and good strategies to repair the serious damage done to the nation鈥檚 image among travelers in the rest of the world.
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