Orange juice and tourists 鈥� those are two of the things most at risk for Florida in the trade dispute between the U-S and Canada, even as the two countries agree to pause their threatened tariffs for a month.
If there is American orange juice in Canada, odds are it came from Florida. And it would be more expensive if the two countries cannot come to an agreement over the next month to end trade tensions.
When President Donald Trump threatened to put a 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods, Canada retaliated with its own threat on American goods.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau specifically warned that Canadians may have to skip Florida鈥檚 defining crop if he followed through with his threat of tariffs on American imports. He specifically warned that Canadians may skip Florida鈥檚 defining crop, telling them grocery shoppers may have to 鈥渇orego Florida orange juice altogether.鈥�
Canadians might change their "summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada."Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Florida exports tens of millions of dollars worth of orange juice to Canada. About 60% of American orange juice sent to Canada comes from Florida. Among the list of hundreds of products included in Canada鈥檚 first set of tariffs due to take effect Tuesday are oranges, tangerines, grapefruit and fresh orange juice.
鈥淐anada accounted for most of Florida鈥檚 orange and tangerine exports,鈥� declared a on Florida鈥檚 citrus crop in 2023.
Florida orange juice exports to Canada have been dropping, yet it remains the largest state shipping the drink north of the border.
The 鈥溾�� for the Canadian market, according to a 2022 report by the Florida Department of Citrus, comes from Brazil. The report notes that Brazilian orange juice that year was 35% cheaper. Florida maintained only a $10 million edge over Brazilian orange juice that year.
Any drop-off in orange juice sales to Canada would come at a bad time for Florida growers. Florida鈥檚 famed orange crop has been struggling for more than a decade. Production has fallen 95% in a generation. Only about 12 million boxes are expected to be harvested this year, according to USDA data. Growers brought out more than 200 million boxes from their groves 30 years ago.
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Trees have been decimated by citrus greening bacterial disease and hurricanes. Southwest Florida's biggest grower 鈥� Alico 鈥攁nnounced in early January that it was getting out of the citrus growing business.
In a statement the company said most of its land will likely be used for other agricultural purposes and that about 25 percent of it has development potential.
The bigger direct economic risk to Florida posed by trade tensions is the import of Canadian tourists visiting the Sunshine State.
Canadians were the number one international tourists to Florida in 2023. Tourists from Canada jumped 20% from a year earlier. Broward County is one of their traditional destinations. About a third of Canadians visiting Florida spent some time in Broward County, spending $700 million, according to Stacy Ritter, CEO of Visit Lauderdale.
Before agreeing to a 30-day cooling off period, Trudeau appealed to his constituents expecting to travel in the months ahead. 鈥淚t might mean changing your summer vacation plans to stay here in Canada,鈥� he said.
The summer vacation season may favor Canada鈥檚 humidity even if the trade war remains hot.
