This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Joseph J. Gonzalez is an associate professor of Global Studies at Appalachian State University.
The U.S. and Cuban governments have been since the conclusion of the Cuban Revolution 67 years ago. Yet despite pressure, embargoes and various CIA plots, the communist government in Havana has resisted the wishes of its very powerful neighbor separated by just 90 miles (145 kilometers) of water.
From my perspective as an , however, this moment seems different.
For the first time since 1959, an American president, Donald Trump, appears on the what so many of his predecessors have longed to do: and compel the Cuban government to align itself with American .
If Trump succeeds 鈥� either through military might or negotiation 鈥� then Cuba looks set to become something less than a sovereign nation and more akin to an American client state.
A partnership of unequals?
At first glance, the possibility of such a change looks epic, even monumental: an end to the Cuban Revolution as we have known it.
But deep in the annals of U.S.-Cuban history, there are echoes of Trump鈥檚 demands.
From 1898 to 1959, the American government essentially as a colony within its empire.
Americans who would occupy the presidential palace, while Cuban politicians and supported in the Caribbean. American and the gambling.
That relationship ended with the revolution and . But if Trump has his way, the future of the U.S. and Cuba will look very much like it did in the pre-Castro era: a partnership of unequals.
Heightened tensions
During his first term, Trump turned away from President Barack Obama鈥檚 鈥�,鈥� which had established diplomatic relations, eased travel restrictions and raised hopes of an end to the decades-old U.S. embargo.
In place of engagement with the Cuban government, Trump , all but in Havana and travel by American citizens to the island.
Trump also returned Cuba to the State Department鈥檚 that support terrorism, where it resides today.
Now, one year into his second term, Trump is using coercion backed with a tacit military threat to increase pressure on the Cuban government.
On Jan. 3, 2026, U.S. forces, and his wife, bringing them to New York to stand trial.
During the raid, U.S. forces killed between 75 and 100 and a coterie of providing security to Maduro.
Venezuela was Cuba鈥檚 , providing the island with in exchange for and for Venezuela鈥檚 security and intelligence services.
Following Maduro鈥檚 arrest, Trump made it clear that the U.S. would any country to supply Cuba with oil.
Without oil, Trump predicted that the Cuban government would and suggested that Marco Rubio, his Cuban American Secretary of State, president of Cuba.
Secret negotiations
Cuba was in long before Maduro鈥檚 arrest.
In the years since the COVID-19 pandemic, the government has found it to electricity, water, public health and public transport.
Then came the Trump administration鈥檚 oil embargo, which may push Cuba into the in its history, and in public services.
Hunger is now a , garbage is and mosquito-borne illnesses . Dissent is also becoming more public 鈥� and .
Publicly, the communist government to the Trump administration鈥檚 aggressive actions, pledging to resist American pressure just as it had for the better part of 60 years.
Privately, however, the Cuban government with the Trump administration, hoping to find a way to ease American pressure.
The White House reportedly the collapse of the Cuban government desirable, as it would precipitate that threatens the stability of the Caribbean, including to a South Florida that is home to the world鈥檚 largest Cuban diaspora community.
The 鈥榁enezuelan Solution鈥�
Cuba鈥檚 president, Miguel D铆az-Canel, has talks with the U.S. But the particulars remain obscure.
The U.S. government reportedly wants and permit in Cuba, particularly from Cuban Americans, which has long been prohibited.
The Cuban government to this latter demand.
The Trump administration also wants released of officials who were close to Fidel and Ra煤l Castro, his successor as president, and after the Cuban revolutionary leader鈥檚 death in 2016. According to , Cuba has at least 1,000 prisoners of conscience.
In exchange, the White House would be willing to permit members of to remain in Cuba and allow for the . The rest of the would also remain intact.
Cubans I know are calling this deal the 鈥淰enezuela Solution.鈥� Much like Maduro鈥檚 successors, Cuba鈥檚 leaders would 鈥� provided they accept diminished political sovereignty and respect U.S. policy priorities.
Back to the future
Such a deal, if it happens, would return Cuba to the status of an , the status it held long before Castro seized power and allied himself with the Soviet Union.
In 1898, the in the Cuban War of Independence, the last in fought by Cubans against their onetime Spanish colonizers.
The United States kicked out the Spanish, and to turn Cuba into an independent, sovereign nation-state.
But that never happened.
Distrusting the Cubans鈥� ability to govern themselves, the U.S. to intervene in Cuban politics.
Between 1898 and 1959, the U.S. government, through its ambassador in Havana, determined whenever a dispute arose.
Cuban politicians, eager to preserve their positions, guarded American property, , and supported U.S. foreign policy throughout Latin America and the world.
On the eve of the revolution, Americans owned more than in property in Cuba 鈥� the equivalent of at least $9 billion today.
Americans dominated but also public utilities, mining and tourism, which American organized crime came to control.
What鈥檚 next?
For more than 60 years, pre-revolutionary Cuba endured as an American client state.
Could such a relationship reemerge? For now, the situation between the U.S. and Cuba remains fluid, and the terms of discussions are shrouded in secrecy.
Trump, publicly, promotes a 鈥�,鈥� insisting that he could do with Cuba 鈥�.鈥�
But one thing remains certain. While Trump remains in the White House and Rubio heads the State Department, U.S. maximum pressure on Cuba will not cease.
The Trump administration is the Cuban government鈥檚 resistance to American power and American investment, regardless of the direct humanitarian costs in the form of the oil embargo and other penalties.
Any deal with Trump will be a bitter pill for Cuba鈥檚 political elite to swallow.
But absent an oil-rich ally, like Russia or Venezuela, and faced with an implacable enemy, Cuban officials may have no choice but to bring Cuba back into the orbit of American power, at least for now.
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